El impacto de las políticas arancelarias de EE. UU. sobre el alumbre electrolíticoinum Prices
On April 17th, President Biden proposed raising tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum to 25%, citing "unfair competition," during his visit to the headquarters of the United Steelworkers Union.
Following suit, Mexico's President Lopez signed a decree on April 22nd imposing temporary import tariffs ranging from 5% to 50% on 544 items including steel, aluminum, textiles, clothing, shoes, wood, plastics, and their products. However, due to aluminum shortages, Mexico later canceled the 35% tariff on aluminum imposed since late April.
El 14 de mayo, Estados Unidos publicó los resultados de una revisión de cuatro años de los 301 aranceles a China, anunciando nuevos aumentos en los aranceles sobre vehículos eléctricos importados, baterías de litio, paneles solares, minerales críticos, semiconductores, así como acero, aluminio, grúas portuarias y equipos de protección personal. Entre ellos, los aranceles al aluminio aumentarán del 0-7,5% al 25%, mientras que los aranceles a los vehículos eléctricos subirán del 25% al 100%.
Looking at China's aluminum-related exports in 2023:
Para aluminio primario:
China exportó alrededor de 150.000 toneladas de aluminio primario en 2023, con menos de 360 toneladas exportadas a Estados Unidos. Por lo tanto, la política arancelaria tiene poco impacto en la exportación de aluminio primario.
Para productos de aluminio:
China exported a total of about 5.29 million tons of aluminum products in 2023, with around 230,000 tons exported to the United States, accounting for about 4.3%. China's exports of aluminum products totaled around 2.8 million tons in 2023, with exports to the United States accounting for approximately 15%. Therefore, the US tariff increase policy will have a certain impact on China's subsequent exports of aluminum products to the United States — the cost of exporting aluminum products to the United States may increase, leading to a potential reduction in export quantity. This may also widen the overseas aluminum supply gap. In the short term, this may lead to expectations of stronger London aluminum and weaker Shanghai aluminum, while in the long term, it may affect the global supply and demand pattern of aluminum-related products.
